CS2 Case Odds: Official Drop Rates, Knife Chances & Best Cases to Open

Case opening is one of the most popular and exciting processes to obtain a coveted skin. The only things players need are a case and a case key to open it. A few mouse clicks, and long seconds of waiting while the system randomly chooses the skin that you will obtain for this time. But how exactly does it work? What are the case odds in CS2? Is there a case with higher chances of getting a desirable knife or gloves? Follow our guide to know the answers to these and other questions and to understand what to expect from any case in Counter-Strike 2.

What are Case Odds in CS2?

CS2 case odds are simply the probability of obtaining a skin, based on its rarity. Usually, it includes five rarity levels, such as Mil-Spec or Classified. In short, the CS2 case chances to obtain Mil-Spec are much higher than to get Classified because the second one is rarer. Of course, there are also approximate percentages due to the rarity level.

The interesting fact is that these CS2 odds were hidden for years. It was only in 2017 that Valve lifted the veil of secrecy. The reason lies in the laws of China’s Ministry of Culture, which force all game publishers to reveal loot crates’ content and their drop odds. As a result, Valve explained that each rarity level is five times rarer than its subsequent tier. At the same time, the difference in the ratio between Knives/Gloves and Covert weapon skins is only 2:5.

The Old Method Of Estimating Case Odds

As we mentioned, players first saw the official CS2 case drop rates only in 2017. Until this year, the community used approximate CS2 case odds, which were determined by simply opening a calculator. Of course, this method includes the video observation of popular streamers and content makers. Still, though, due to the lack of official information, the community was skeptical of such calculations.

CS2 Official Weapon Case Odds

The first CS2 case odds we should explore belong to weapon cases. These containers are the most common on the market. One more essential detail is that they contain skins for all weapon models. Of course, each finish, created by Valve or community designers, belongs to the specific case, except for Knives and Gloves due to the limitations of their designs.

Such cases contain skins of different rarities. Here is the list of them along with CS2 case odds:

• Mil-Spec Grade (Dark Blue): 79.92% (4 in 5).
• Restricted (Purple): 15.98% (1 in 6).
• Classified (Pink): 3.2% (1 in 31).
• Covert (Red): 0.64% (1 in 156).
• Exceedingly Rare (Knives, Gloves) (Gold): 0.26% (1 in 385).

Clearly, given the official case odds in such CS2 cases, the chance of obtaining Red or even Gold is extremely low. Moreover, the probability in practice is even lower, but it’s a different story. Overall, to obtain one of the case’s skins, players need a case and a case key, which can be double (or higher) the case’s price.

CS2 Official Souvenir Package Odds

CS2 case odds in Souvenir Packages share the same functionality but differ in several respects. Of course, the most important detail is that such a case can drop only during major CS2 tournaments. Also, players can get it with Souvenir Tokens and open it without a case key. Lastly, the weapon skins in Souvenir Packages feature exclusive golden tournament stickers.

Here, we provide a list of skins’ rarities and their drop chances:

• Consumer Grade (Gray): 80% (4 in 5).
• Industrial Grade (Blue): 16% (1 in 6).
• Mil-Spec Grade (Dark Blue): 3.2% (1 in 31).
• Restricted (Purple): 0.64% (1 in 156).
• Classified (Pink): 0.128% (1 in 781).
• Covert (Red): 0.0256% (1 in 3906).

As you can see, players cannot obtain Gold from Souvenir Packages. More crucial is that the odds of getting even Restricted rarity skins are on the same level as Covert rarity skins in weapon cases. Still, it’s a simple explanation of the cost of high-tier Souvenir skins on the second market.

CS2 Official Sticker Capsule Odds

Lastly, we need to explore the Sticker Capsules odds, which are a bit simpler than the previous case’s odds. The main reason is that there are only four rarity tiers. Also, similar to Souvenir Packages, players don’t need a key to open the Sticker Capsule.

These rarities and the chance to obtain them are below:

• High Grade (Dark Blue): 80% (4 in 5).
• Remarkable (Purple): 16% (1 in 6).
• Exotic (Pink): 3.2% (1 in 31).
• Extraordinary (Red): 0.641% (1 in 156).

As you can see, players have the highest odds of getting a case with CS2 Sticker Capsules. You can get at least 1 Extraordinary Sticker by opening 156 capsules.

Probability in Practice

In practice, CS2 case chances may look even worse than in official Valve’s explanations. Based on many community discussions, there is always a chance that, even after opening a thousand cases, you will not obtain a knife or gloves. Technically, it still depends on your own luck. Many users still share their moments with one, two, or even three golds after opening fewer than a hundred cases.

At the same time, it’s better to understand the probability math:

• 50 cases give players approximately a 12% chance of obtaining one knife or gloves.
• 100 cases double this chance, approximating 23%.
• 267 cases share a 50% chance, which is quite high.
• 500 cases guarantee a 71% chance.
• 1,000 cases offer a 93% chance of getting at least one gold.

Best CS2 Cases to Open

But are there the best CS2 cases to open? Can we manipulate the results? In short, as we noted in previous parts, all cases follow the same logic. The low-tier rarity skins have the highest chance to be obtained, while Covert and Exceedingly Rare finishes are a real treasure. At the same time, we should notice two different categories of best CS2 cases to open.

The first one simply relies on your preferences and goals. In other words, if you want to obtain a specific skin, like AK-47 | Case Hardened, your only and best option is to open CS:GO Weapon Case. For players looking for AWP | Printstream, the choice is Fever Case.

The second category means CS2 Cases with the highest ROI (Return on Investment). ROI is a percentage criterion that shows the profitability of opening cases. It’s calculated by dividing the average market price of obtained skins by the total cost of opening the case, including the key to open it. For example, if the ROI is 60%, players have a high chance of returning at least $60 while spending $100 on case opening.

Here, we provide a list of cases with the highest ROI at the moment:

• Operation Wildfire Case: 82.57% ROI
• Falchion Case: 72.71% ROI.
• Operation Vanguard Weapon Case: 71.58% ROI.
• Snakebite Case: 69.64% ROI.
• Chroma 2 Case: 69.42% ROI.
• Gallery Case: 68.44% ROI.
• Prisma Case: 68.42% ROI.
• Shadow Case: 68.22% ROI.

Remember to explore more best CS2 cases to open to get the highest profit! Here, you will find everything you need, including the list of skins in the containers, their ROI indicator, and how to choose which one to open.

To Sum Up

While case opening is one of the most exciting processes in CS2, it’s still better to know and understand the case odds. And, as you can see, it’s not magic, but a complicated mathematical process, which also strongly relies on randomness. For sure, not the last place takes the player’s luck. Some users can open hundreds of cases without even Classified skins, while others obtain Gold at their first ten case openings. Regardless of which container you choose, remember to be responsible when opening.

Also, you can always find more content about Counter-Strike 2, skins, and valuable tips on our blog. Let’s play and win together!

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